The College Payoff, 2026

Foreword

Individuals with higher levels of education earn more, pay more taxes, and are more likely than others to be employed. At the same time, median earnings alone do not describe individual experience. Workers at every education level are distributed across a wide range of earnings, and many with less education out-earn the median worker one credential above them—a pattern documented in Education Pays and emphasized in Georgetown CEW overlap tables.

Four types of measures appear in the sections that follow. Readers should not combine them in a single comparison without noting the definition of each:

• Annual median earnings

  Education Pays 2026, U.S. Census Bureau CPS — full-time, year-round workers in a given year, plus break-even ages that net tuition, fees, and loan repayment against cumulative earnings.

• Field- and major-level earnings

  Georgetown CEW The Major Payoff (2025) for bachelor’s-only workers, typically ages 25–54 (prime-age) or 22–26 (recent graduates).

• Synthetic lifetime earnings

  Georgetown CEW College Payoff (2011/2021) — summing median earnings across age groups for workers ages 25 to 64 who work full time year-round.

• Institution cohort earnings

  College Scorecard — median earnings for students measured at fixed horizons after first entry (often 10 years), including non-completers unless suppressed.

• Return on investment

  EDsmart Scorecard builds and program-level federal data — cumulative earnings minus net price and forgone wages; program views weight majors and completion differently than institution medians.

A bachelor’s median of $81,800 in 2024 (Education Pays) is not directly comparable to a CEW median lifetime total of about $2.8 million in 2019 dollars without adjusting for population, time horizon, and inflation. The benchmark table in Part 3 lists these figures side by side with that caution.

Part 2: Individual and societal benefits (Education Pays 2026)

The following tables reproduce key statistics from Education Pays 2026: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society (Pender, Ma, Hu, & Edwards; College Board, April 2026). Unless otherwise noted, earnings are for full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older. Data are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2025; calculations by the College Board authors.

Earnings, taxes, and after-tax income by education level

Figure 2.1 shows median earnings and estimated tax payments by education level in 2024.

In 2024, median earnings of bachelor’s degree recipients with no advanced degree were $81,800, $31,200 (62%) higher than the $50,600 median for high school graduates. Bachelor’s degree recipients paid an estimated $9,000 (82%) more in taxes than high school graduates and took home $22,200 (56%) more in after-tax income.

Break-even age relative to high school graduates

Education Pays estimates the age at which cumulative earnings, net of loan repayment for tuition, fees, and books and supplies, exceed those of a high school graduate who enters the labor force at age 18 (Figure 2.3B).

• For an associate degree at the average public two-year published price, cumulative earnings exceed those of a high school graduate by age 33; at average net price, by age 31.
• For a bachelor’s degree at the average published price across public and private nonprofit four-year institutions, break-even occurs at age 34; at average net price, at age 30; for a five-year path at published price, at age 37.

Under the baseline scenario in which a student enrolls at age 18, graduates in four years, and borrows the full cost of published tuition and fees and books and supplies without grant aid, median cumulative earnings exceed those of a high school graduate by age 34.

Earnings over time by education level

Distribution of earnings within levels of education

Among full-time, year-round workers age 35 to 44 in 2024 (Figure 2.4), 4% of those without a high school diploma and 13% of high school graduates earned $100,000 or more. The share earning $100,000 or more was 40% among those whose highest attainment was a bachelor’s degree and 58% among advanced degree holders; 19% of bachelor’s degree holders earned $150,000 or more.

Also important: In 2024, 25% of females with a college degree earned less than $51,200 and 25% earned more than $102,200. Among male college graduates, 25% earned less than $62,300 and 25% earned more than $144,500 (Figure 2.6). Figure 2.4 includes only full-time, year-round workers between the ages of 35 and 44, when most workers have finished school and started a career. Some of the variation in earnings is associated with field of study, occupation, location, gender, and race/ethnicity (Figures 2.5 through 2.12).

Employment, health, poverty, and civic participation

Education Pays 2026 documents non-pecuniary and societal patterns alongside earnings. The bullets below are drawn from the report’s 2024–2025 data releases (workbook figures 2.13–2.22).

• Employment: In 2025, among civilians age 25 to 64, 70% of high school graduates were employed, compared with 83% of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher; unemployment rates were 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively (Figure 2.13).
• Public assistance: In 2024, 14% of adults with a high school diploma lived in households receiving SNAP, compared with 3.3% of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher; Medicaid participation was 29% and 10%, respectively (Figure 2.19).
• Poverty: In 2024, 13% of adults with a high school diploma lived in poverty, compared with 4.1% of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher; among female householders with related children under 18, the poverty rate was 33% for high school graduates and 11% for bachelor’s degree holders (Figure 2.18A).
• Health insurance: Among full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older, 51% with a high school diploma had employer-provided health coverage in 2024, compared with 66% of bachelor’s degree recipients and 68% of advanced degree holders (Figure 2.17A).
• Smoking: Between 2022 and 2024, 17% of adults with a high school diploma or less were current smokers, compared with 4.2% of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher (Figure 2.22A).
• Voting: In 2024, 76% of citizens age 25 to 44 with at least a bachelor’s degree voted, compared with 42% of high school graduates in the same age group (Figure 2.20A).
• Volunteering: In 2023, 17% of adults with a high school diploma volunteered, compared with 38% of bachelor’s degree recipients and 49% of advanced degree holders (Figure 2.21A).

Society at large also gains from increases in postsecondary attainment through higher tax revenues and lower reliance on social support programs, as documented in Education Pays 2026.

Part 1: The distribution of benefits—who participates and succeeds in higher education?

Although college enrollment rates have risen over time, gaps in enrollment, persistence, and completion persist across demographic groups. The magnitude of the benefits of postsecondary education makes ensuring improved access for all who can benefit a continuing policy priority.

• In 2022, 81% of Asian, 64% of White, 59% of Black, and 58% of Hispanic recent high school graduates enrolled in college within one year of graduation. Male enrollment was 57%, down from 61% in 2002; female enrollment was 67% in both years (Figures 1.1A, 1.2A).
• In 2024, 73% of Asian, 46% of White, 30% of Black, and 25% of Hispanic adults age 25 to 29 held a bachelor’s degree. Among all adults in that age group, 45% of females and 35% of males had completed a bachelor’s degree (Figures 1.7A, 1.7B).
• Among first-time full-time four-year students who entered in fall 2016, 65% earned a bachelor’s degree within six years; six-year completion was 78% for Asian students, 59% for Hispanic students, and 46% for Black students (Figure 1.5A).
• In 2022, the percentage of adults age 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree ranged from 24% in West Virginia to 65% in the District of Columbia (Figure 1.8).
• In 2021–22, postsecondary institutions conferred about 1 million certificates, 1 million associate’s degrees, 2 million bachelor’s degrees, 880,300 master’s degrees, and 203,900 doctoral degrees (Figure 1.9A).

Also important: Within each SAT quartile, college enrollment rates are higher for students from neighborhoods with higher median family income than for those from lower-income neighborhoods (Figure 1.3). Earnings premiums reported elsewhere in this synthesis generally apply to workers who complete a credential and work full time year-round; they do not describe every student’s path.

Attainment goals and state progress

NCES attainment indicators and national goal statements describe progress toward more adults with postsecondary credentials; many coalitions cite a target of about 75% by 2040 with credentials tied to good-paying jobs. Those goals sit alongside the enrollment and completion disparities in Part 1 above.

Education Pays (Figure 1.8) shows that the share of adults age 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree rose in every state between 2000 and 2022—for example, from about 15% to 24% in West Virginia and from about 39% to 65% in the District of Columbia. State-level detail and trends appear on educational attainment by state and educational attainment trends over time.

Part 3: Lifetime earnings by educational attainment (Georgetown CEW)

Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) estimates synthetic lifetime earnings by summing median annual earnings across five-year age groups for adults ages 25 to 64 who work full time year-round. These totals illustrate how annual differences can accumulate; they are not forecasts of what today’s young adults will earn over the next 40 years. CEW figures below are medians in each report’s nominal dollar year (2009$ in 2011; 2019$ in 2021).

Benchmark medians: CEW lifetime earnings and Education Pays annual earnings

Also important: CEW sums synthetic 40-year earnings profiles. Education Pays and the Census Bureau report single-year medians for overlapping but not identical populations. Census “bachelor’s or higher” includes graduate degrees; the Education Pays bachelor’s row excludes advanced degrees.

Incremental premiums (CEW 2021)

• At the median, workers with a bachelor’s degree had about 75% higher lifetime earnings than high school graduates.
• The median bachelor’s degree holder earned about 40% more over a lifetime than the median associate degree holder.
• Professional degree holders had a median lifetime total of about $4.7 million (2019 dollars), the highest of any credential group.

Also important: Completing high school alone raised median lifetime earnings by roughly one-third relative to less-than-high-school workers in CEW 2021. Some college with no degree added a smaller increment of about 19% over high school at the median.

Distribution of earnings within levels of education (Georgetown CEW)

Median earnings are higher for those with higher levels of education, but there is variation in earnings at each level of educational attainment. Georgetown CEW reports the share of workers at one credential level whose lifetime earnings exceed the median at the next level up. Education Pays 2013 and How College Shapes Lives (2013) documented similar patterns using annual earnings: in 2011, 16% of bachelor’s degree holders ages 35 to 44 earned less than the median for high school graduates in that age group, and 16% of male high school graduates earned as much as or more than the median male bachelor’s degree recipient.

Share earning more than the next credential’s median (CEW 2011 and 2021)

Also important: Rankings that consider only degree level do not capture variation within occupations or fields of study. Counseling and policy discussions should incorporate earnings ranges within intended occupations, not only medians by credential.

Within-level spread (CEW and Education Pays 2026)

In CEW 2011, lifetime earnings for bachelor’s degree holders ranged from about $1.49 million at the 25th percentile to $3.39 million at the 75th percentile. In Education Pays 2026, among full-time year-round workers age 25 and older in 2024, the 25th and 75th percentiles of annual earnings were $51,200 and $102,200 for women with a college degree and $62,300 and $144,500 for men (Figure 2.6).

Earnings over time by education level

As workers age, earnings rise more rapidly for those with higher levels of education. In CEW 2021, by age 30, workers with professional degrees had higher median earnings than all other groups; by age 40, their earnings were about 131% above their age-25 median, compared with about 20% growth for workers with less than a high school diploma. CEW 2011 reported a similar pattern: professional degree holders roughly doubled real earnings between their late 20s and their 40s, while high school graduates experienced about 25% growth over the same span.

Also important: CEW age profiles include only full-time, year-round workers. Adults who leave the labor force for caregiving, health, or unemployment may not follow these trajectories. Early-career earnings are a weak predictor of mid-career outcomes for some fields but a stronger one for others (Figure 2.9).

Variation in earnings: associate’s and bachelor’s degrees

Median earnings of bachelor’s degree recipients generally exceed those of associate’s degree holders, but the premium varies by occupation and experience. Education Pays 2026 (CPS) reports $61,300 for associate’s holders and $81,800 for bachelor’s holders—full-time, year-round, age 25+.

National medians by credential (Census CPS)

Also important: In licensed health and skilled trades, experienced workers with an associate’s degree or certificate can earn near or above the national bachelor’s median. Overlap is real—not every associate’s holder sits below every bachelor’s holder.

Occupations with a small bachelor’s premium

In several licensed fields—nursing, dental hygiene, culinary work, and skilled trades—experience and licensure often matter more than two extra years of general education. Compare field-level wages in BLS OEWS and program completion rates, not only credential labels.

Net value-added earnings (Texas public institutions)

The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board links public college entrants to state wage records. Summaries estimate cumulative net value-added earnings relative to non-college peers, after instructional costs and forgone wages:

• Bachelor’s degree (15-year horizon): about $87,000 cumulative net value-added earnings for the reference cohort; break-even around years 9 to 10 after entry.
• STEM bachelor’s fields averaged about $131,600 net value-added earnings versus about $81,400 for non-STEM fields; engineering and architecture averaged about $204,700; liberal arts about $35,400.
• Associate’s degree (10-year): about $25,300 net value-added earnings on average; construction trades associate’s programs about $72,900; some certificate and associate’s fields showed negative returns.

Also important: Institution-level bachelor’s returns in Texas ranged from about $175,000 to roughly negative $15,000 across campuses in Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board wage-record summaries. Outcomes varied more with high school math achievement than with student income band alone.

The Major Payoff (2025): earnings and employment by bachelor’s major

The Major Payoff: Evaluating Earnings and Employment Outcomes Across Bachelor’s Degrees (Morris, Cheah, & Strohl; Georgetown CEW, 2025) analyzes 152 majors grouped into eight broad fields and 16 detailed fields, using pooled American Community Survey data (2009–2023). Unless noted, earnings are for full-time, year-round workers with a bachelor’s degree only, in 2024 dollars. Prime-age workers are ages 25–54; recent college graduates are ages 22–26.

Part 1. Earnings by field and major

Median earnings vary significantly by field of study. Among prime-age workers with a bachelor’s degree only, STEM ($98,000), business and communications ($86,000), and healthcare ($82,000) lead; education and public service ($58,000), humanities and the arts ($69,000), and career-focused fields ($72,000) fall below the overall median of $81,000 (Figure 2).

Within STEM, median earnings among 65 majors range from $146,000 (petroleum engineering) to $64,000 (miscellaneous agriculture). Fourteen of 19 humanities and arts majors have medians above $65,000—the 25th percentile for STEM bachelor’s holders—so some graduates in lower-paying fields still out-earn a large share of STEM workers.

Among recent college graduates, the same broad ordering holds: STEM ($63,000), healthcare ($60,000), and business and communications ($55,000) exceed the $53,000 median for all recent graduates; humanities and the arts ($45,000) and education and public service ($46,000) are lowest (Figure 4).

Also important: A high-paying field is not a guarantee of high earnings: half of workers earn below the median, and spreads within fields are wide. Prime-age workers with a bachelor’s in pharmacy ($145,000) often hold older five-year pharmacy credentials or graduate training; recent graduates in that major median $50,000 because licensure now requires a graduate degree (Figure 5–6; CEW notes).

Part 2. Shifts in degree production and major choice

Between 2009 and 2023, degree production in computers, statistics, and mathematics increased 159%; health degrees more than doubled. Humanities and liberal arts degrees declined 33%; education degrees declined 14% (Figure 7). In 2022, nearly one-third of workers ages 22–26 with a bachelor’s degree had majored in STEM, and a similar share had majored in business and communications (Figure 8).

Also important: Fears that humanities degrees cannot support middle-class earnings are not fully borne out by the data: only five of 19 humanities and arts majors have medians below the 25th percentile of STEM bachelor’s earnings ($65,000).

Part 3. Graduate degree earnings premiums

Workers with graduate degrees earn more on average than those with a bachelor’s alone. CEW estimates a 29% median earnings premium for graduate degree holders relative to bachelor’s-only workers, with wide variation by bachelor’s field.

• Largest percentage premiums by field: multidisciplinary studies (40%), social sciences (34%), education and public service (32%), humanities and the arts (32%) (Figure 10).
• Largest dollar gains at the major level: health and medical preparatory programs ($70,000 → $152,000, 117% premium; 77% also hold a graduate degree); zoology ($70,000 → $129,000, 86%).
• Highest share earning a graduate degree: education and public service (50%), social sciences (45%), STEM (44%) (Figure 11).
• Smallest graduate premiums among high-earning BA majors: petroleum engineering (14%), architectural engineering (5%).

Also important: Percentage premiums can mislead when baseline bachelor’s earnings are low. Education majors gain about $19,000 (32%) with a graduate degree—similar in dollars to a 22% premium for career-focused majors. Graduate study can be costly; federal graduate loan policy has shifted with the end of Grad PLUS and changes to income-driven repayment (CEW, 2025).

EDsmart Data: graduate programs in College Scorecard (complements CEW above)

Georgetown CEW graduate premiums above describe workers in the American Community Survey (typically “bachelor’s in field X” vs “any graduate degree among those workers”). EDsmart’s separate Scorecard build describes program cohorts after completing a specific master’s, doctoral, or first-professional credential—using 1-, 4-, and 5-year post-completion earnings, not a 10-year program window. The Department does not publish 10-year post-completion earnings by program; do not treat program figures as comparable to institution-level “10 years after first entry” medians or to sample program ROI tables that use a 10-year horizon.

Among master’s programs in this national build, 4-year post-completion medians in the top 50 CIPs span roughly 2.9 to 1 (dentistry $327,492 vs taxation $114,810)—a wide but narrower spread than EDsmart’s bachelor’s program ladder (about 4:1 in the same Scorecard source family). Health and clinical CIPs dominate the top of the master’s distribution; that pattern aligns with CEW’s large dollar gains in health and medical preparatory fields but is not a guarantee that every master’s in every field pays off after tuition and time out of the labor force.

Also important: Program-level Scorecard earnings describe graduates in a field, not every worker with a master’s degree. For typical graduate tuition and aid, see average cost of a master’s degree.

Part 4. Unemployment among recent graduates

Since May 2022, the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has consistently exceeded the rate for all workers. In March 2025, the average unemployment rate was 5.8% for recent graduates, 4.0% for all workers, and 2.7% for all college graduates ages 22–65 (Figure 12).

Among recent graduates (pooled 2021–2023), unemployment was highest in humanities and the arts (7.7%) and social sciences (6.3%), and lowest in education and public service (3.2%) and healthcare (3.4%). By detailed field, arts (8.9%), humanities and liberal arts (6.7%), computers/statistics/mathematics (6.8%), and communications and journalism (6.3%) had elevated rates among recent graduates (Figure 13).

Earnings and unemployment do not always move together. Recent graduates in computers, statistics, and mathematics faced 6.8% unemployment but median earnings of $79,000 when employed full time; education majors had 2.8% unemployment but median earnings of $47,000 among recent graduates in 2022.

Also important: Unemployment among recent computer science graduates was 7.2% in 2021–2023, up from 5.3% in 2014, even as institutions expand CS offerings. Hiring slowdowns in technology, finance, and media, employer caution, and automation of some entry-level tasks may contribute (CEW, 2025).

Part 5. Who majors in high-paying fields?

Men are overrepresented in STEM and career-focused fields relative to their share of bachelor’s degree holders; women are overrepresented in healthcare and education and public service (Figure 14). Asian workers are highly overrepresented in STEM and healthcare and underrepresented in education and public service; Hispanic/Latino and Black workers are underrepresented in STEM and overrepresented in multidisciplinary studies and career-focused fields (Figures 15–17).

Also important: Restricted access to lucrative majors—minimum GPAs, gateway course performance, or competitive admission—disproportionately affects underrepresented students (research summarized in CEW Major Payoff, 2025).

Education Pays 2026: early- and mid-career majors

Education Pays 2026 reports median earnings for full-time, year-round workers by major in early and mid-career age bands (Figure 2.9). Figures align with CEW’s ranking of high- and low-pay fields:

Lifetime earnings by major (CEW College Payoff, 2021)

CEW 2021 reported median lifetime earnings among bachelor’s fields of about $3.8 million in architecture and engineering and $3.6 million in computers, statistics, and mathematics, versus about $2.0 million in education and $2.2 million in psychology and social work (2019 dollars, synthetic lifetime profiles).

Program-level return on investment (College Scorecard)

Federal College Scorecard program fields support ROI-style comparisons when paired with net price and completion data (see field documentation). EDsmart’s institution build finds 0.8% of schools with negative 10-year ROI; program-level views often show more dispersion because majors, completion, and net price differ within the same campus.

• Engineering, computer science, nursing, and health fields often rank highest in program earnings tables.
• Arts, education, and some liberal arts programs more often show lower post-completion medians in Scorecard CIP data.
• Program-level weak-return shares typically exceed institution-level negative ROI shares when completion and forgone wages are modeled—different denominators, not contradictory facts.

EDsmart Data publishes related cuts in ranking colleges by ROI and debt-to-earnings by major, with cohort rules documented in the College Scorecard ROI methodology.

Earnings by race/ethnicity, gender, and education level

Earnings by gender and education level

In 2024, among full-time year-round workers age 25 and older, median earnings of female four-year college graduates were $71,800, $29,800 (71%) more than median earnings of female high school graduates. Median earnings of male bachelor’s degree recipients were $95,400, $40,000 (72%) higher than median earnings of male high school graduates (Figure 2.6). In CEW 2021, men had higher median lifetime earnings than women at every education level among full-time, full-year workers.

In 2024, among full-time year-round workers age 25 to 34, median earnings of workers with at least a bachelor’s degree were $71,360 for women and $86,320 for men, compared with $39,770 and $50,780, respectively, for high school graduates (Figure 2.7).

Earnings by race/ethnicity and education level (2022–2024)

Between 2022 and 2024, median earnings of individuals age 25 and older working full time year-round with a bachelor’s degree were as follows (Figure 2.5):

Median earnings ranged from $61,800 among Hispanic females with a bachelor’s degree to about $100,000 among Asian and White males. The earnings premium for a bachelor’s degree relative to a high school diploma was highest among Asian males and females, whose median earnings were about twice as high as those of high school graduates in the same groups.

Also important: The earnings gap between bachelor’s degree recipients and high school graduates working full time ranged from 56% among Black females to 95% among Asian females (Figure 2.5). CEW 2021 reported that at the bachelor’s level, median lifetime earnings for Black and Latino workers were roughly 21% below White medians, while substantial within-group variation remained at the 75th percentile.

Race and ethnicity (CEW 2021, lifetime earnings)

See also college wage premiums by race and ethnicity (SF Fed research + Education Pays cross-section), college earnings gaps by gender and race, and gender pay gap by education level on EDsmart Data.

Variation in earnings by state

Median earnings of bachelor’s degree recipients vary by state. In Education Pays, median full-time year-round earnings for workers whose highest degree was a bachelor’s degree ranged from $60,500 in Mississippi to $102,000 in the District of Columbia (Figure 2.12). Georgetown CEW 2021 adjusted state lifetime earnings using Bureau of Economic Analysis regional price parities.

Also important: Median household income also varies by state. Household income for adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher includes earnings of other household members and non-wage income, so state gaps in household income can exceed gaps in individual earnings.

Is college worth it? Earnings, costs, and return on investment

Education Pays 2026 documents strong economic and social returns associated with postsecondary education on average. At the same time, shifting public sentiment toward higher education and questions about net price and completion have intensified debate over whether college is “worth it” for every student and program. High median earnings do not guarantee a positive financial return if tuition and debt were high or if the student did not complete a credential.

Costs of attendance (NCES and Education Pays, 2024–25)

• In 2024–25, average published tuition and fees were $11,610 at public four-year in-state institutions, $4,050 at public two-year in-district institutions, and $43,350 at private nonprofit four-year institutions (Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2024; Education Pays pricing tables).
• Inflation-adjusted published tuition fell modestly over the prior decade at public two-year and four-year in-state institutions and rose modestly at private nonprofit four-year institutions.
• Estimated average net tuition and fees at public four-year in-state institutions was about $2,480 in 2024–25, below the peak reached in 2012–13.

Break-even ages (Education Pays 2026, Figure 2.3B)

• Associate degree at average public two-year published price: cumulative earnings exceed a high-school-start path near age 33; at average net price, near age 31.
• Bachelor’s degree at average published price (public and private nonprofit mix): near age 34; at average net price, near age 30.
• Under baseline assumptions (enroll at 18, graduate in four years, borrow full published tuition/fees/books without grants): median cumulative earnings beat the high school path by age 34.

When financial returns may be low or negative

Program-level College Scorecard analyses and state wage-record studies identify specific majors and campuses where expected earnings may not cover costs—especially when students borrow heavily or do not finish. NCES completion data show that non-completion remains a major financial risk: debt without the earnings bump that completers typically see.

Also important: Observational differences in earnings and estimated ROI do not, by themselves, establish causation. This synthesis does not combine Pell-only and all-student College Scorecard earnings in a single column. Individual outcomes vary within every education level reported above.

College costs in context (Pricing trends and Digest 330.10)

Note: Net price is an average after aid; many families pay more, and room and board are separate.

Earnings premiums must be read against what students pay. Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2024 reports that in 2024–25, average published tuition and fees were $11,610 at public four-year in-state institutions, $4,050 at public two-year in-district colleges, and $43,350 at private nonprofit four-year institutions. Estimated average net tuition and fees at public four-year in-state institutions was about $2,480, below the inflation-adjusted peak in 2012–13.

NCES Digest of Education Statistics Table 330.10 shows longer-run movement in average published tuition and fees (tuition and required fees only; not net price, not room and board). Amounts below are in constant 2023–24 dollars per NCES:

Also important: These NCES series are not directly comparable to the 2024–25 College Board averages in the paragraph above (different year, sector definitions, and nominal vs inflation-adjusted dollars). Use College Board / Education Pays for current sticker and net price; use NCES 330.10 for long-run sector trends.

Also important: Sticker tuition is not what most students pay after grants and tax benefits. Break-even ages in Education Pays use both published-price and net-price paths (Figure 2.3). For state-level tuition and aid comparisons, see tuition trends by state and average cost of college by state.

EDsmart Data findings (College Scorecard and BLS)

The statistics in this section are calculated by EDsmart Data from federal College Scorecard and BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics releases—not from College Board or Georgetown CEW tables. Figures were last updated in May 2026. Cohort rules match the College Scorecard ROI methodology report.

How these medians relate to Education Pays 2026

Education Pays reports median earnings for full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older in the Current Population Survey. College Scorecard reports median earnings for institution cohorts measured 10 years after first entry, including non-completers unless suppressed. BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) summarizes occupations that typically require a bachelor’s degree. The three definitions should not be read as contradictions.

Debt relative to institution earnings

Among 3,886 institutions with both median debt among completers and 10-year-after-entry earnings, the median ratio of debt to those earnings is 0.34 (debt is about one-third of a single year’s observed median earnings in the cohort). About 17% of institutions have debt greater than half of that earnings median. See debt-to-earnings by major for field-level pairing rules.

Institution-level return on investment

EDsmart applies a cumulative-earnings-minus-cost definition to Scorecard price and earnings windows (see methodology). Among 4,691 institutions with sufficient fields, 0.8% show negative 10-year ROI; the median surplus is $143,847. At a 20-year horizon, no institution in this build shows negative ROI under these assumptions.

Also important: Program-level Scorecard studies often report a larger share of weak or negative returns than institution-level tables when completion and forgone wages are modeled at the program level. Institution medians and program-level ROI answer different questions; both can be true.

Among BA-predominant institutions, median 10-year-after-entry earnings are highest in Connecticut ($69,053, 24 schools) and lowest in Puerto Rico ($25,416, 41 schools) in this build. Median 10-year ROI among BA-predominant institutions ranges from $183,252 (Maryland) to $76,904 (Puerto Rico).

Completion and earnings (BA-predominant)

Within BA-predominant institutions, median 10-year-after-entry earnings rise with published six-year completion rates: about $44,130 where completion is below 40%, versus $78,207 where completion is 80% or higher (institution medians, not student-level causation).

Field of study (Scorecard CIP, bachelor’s)

From EDsmart’s Scorecard API field-of-study pull (April 2026), national 1-year post-completion medians in the top-50 CIP ladder range from $173,344 (computer science) to $43,834 (computational science)—about 4:1—wider than Education Pays Figure 2.9’s early-career spread ($44,000 performing arts to $87,000 computer science) because the Scorecard metric is program cohort earnings, not CPS worker medians by major.

Interactive tables: ranking colleges by ROI · debt-to-earnings by major.

Education Pays editions, 2004 to 2026

As in previous editions of Education Pays, each biennial release documents median earnings by education level using Census Bureau data for full-time, year-round workers. Over two decades, the dollar gap between bachelor’s degree recipients and high school graduates has widened while the percentage premium has remained in a relatively narrow range. Georgetown CEW lifetime earnings tables and program-level ROI studies add overlapping perspectives on dispersion and financial returns.

Bachelor’s degree premium over time (Education Pays)

The table below summarizes the median earnings advantage for bachelor’s degree recipients with no advanced degree relative to high school graduates, as reported in successive Education Pays editions.

Education Pays 2004 estimated that typical college graduates earn about 73% more than typical high school graduates over a working life. Later editions added variation by state, gender, and race/ethnicity. Georgetown CEW The Major Payoff (2025) extends that work to 152 undergraduate majors, unemployment by field, graduate-degree premiums, and representation in lucrative majors.

For CPS earnings tables in Education Pays 2026, see census.gov/programs-surveys/cps. Prior Education Pays editions (2004 through 2023) document the same long-run premium patterns.

Household income and earnings, 2004 to 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau)

The Census Bureau (September 2025) reported, in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars:

• Median household income for householders age 25 and older was $85,580, 18% higher than in 2004.
• Median household income was $132,700 for householders with a bachelor’s degree or higher and $58,920 for householders with a high school diploma and no college; the ratio of medians increased from about 2.0 in 2004 to 2.3 in 2024.
• Among full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older, median earnings were $49,050 for high school graduates and $85,810 for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher; the ratio rose from about 1.7 to 1.8.

Also important: Household income includes earnings of all household members and non-wage income, so household gaps can exceed gaps in individual earnings.

Mobility vs average earnings

High median earnings at a college or credential level do not measure whether that institution moves students up the income distribution relative to their starting point. Federal College Scorecard cohort medians measure earnings years after entry—not students’ earnings relative to parents’ incomes. State and academic mobility studies use different methods and populations.

Also important: A selective institution with high median earnings may admit students who would have done well regardless; a regional public may show lower medians but stronger mobility for its entrants. EDsmart discusses related ideas in education and income mobility. This synthesis reports published medians and program earnings unless a source explicitly measures mobility.

How College Shapes Lives: Understanding the Issues (2013)

How College Shapes Lives: Understanding the Issues (Baum, Kurose, & Ma; College Board, 2013) explains concepts that underlie Education Pays and related research. Several points from that volume remain relevant when reading Education Pays 2026 or Georgetown CEW lifetime earnings tables:

• The earnings premium describes the difference between average or median earnings of adults with different levels of education. It is related to, but different from, the rate of return to investments in education, which compares earnings gains to the cost of acquiring education.
• If the relevant population is defined as all adults or all working adults, the measured premium is larger than if the analysis is limited to full-time, year-round workers, because those with more education are more likely to be employed full time.
• The option value of a college degree refers to the reality that degrees open doors to further education and other opportunities, even for recipients who have not yet taken advantage of those next steps.
• Synthetic lifetime earnings estimates illustrate how annual differences can add up; they are not forecasts of future earnings paths for today’s students.
• Variation in outcomes across individuals is substantial at every education level; disappointing outcomes for some students are not inconsistent with high average payoffs for most.

Related federal releases

These federal sources extend or qualify the patterns above:

• U.S. Census Bureau — education and household income, 2004–2024.
• NCES Condition of Education — attainment, enrollment, and completion indicators.
• College Scorecard data documentation — cohort earnings, debt, and program fields.
• BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics — occupation wages by education requirement.
• Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board — state wage-record outcomes for public entrants.

Related topics and data pages

The table below links major themes in this report to short data articles, sections on this page, and interactive EDsmart Data pages. View all 20 related articles.

Implications for students and policymakers

The data in Education Pays and related research provide a strong argument for increasing access to and support for successful postsecondary pathways. Students and families making enrollment decisions may wish to consider completion rates and net price at specific institutions, expected occupation and local wages, debt-to-earnings measures in federal College Scorecard data, and alternative credentials with positive estimated returns in their state and field.

Georgetown CEW and College Board both emphasize that guidance should link level of education to field of study and labor market information, not only to whether to enroll. EDsmart Data publishes median and program-level tables for that purpose and documents methodology in the College Scorecard ROI methodology report.

References

• U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS). census.gov/programs-surveys/cps
• Scherer, Z., & King, M. D. (2025). How Education Impacted Income and Earnings From 2004 to 2024. U.S. Census Bureau. census.gov
• Pender, M., Ma, J., Hu, X., & Edwards, A. (2026). Education Pays 2026 (CPS tabulations). College Board edition; earnings from Census CPS.
• College Board. (2024). Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2024.
• Baum, S., Kurose, C., & Ma, J. (2013). How College Shapes Lives: Understanding the Issues. College Board.
• U.S. Department of Education. College Scorecard. collegescorecard.ed.gov
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. bls.gov/oes
• NCES. Digest of Education Statistics, Table 330.10. nces.ed.gov
• NCES. The Condition of Education. nces.ed.gov/programs/coe
• Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Outcomes reporting. reportcenter.highered.texas.gov
• Morris, C., Cheah, B., & Strohl, J. (2025). The Major Payoff. Georgetown CEW. cew.georgetown.edu/major-payoff
• Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Rose, S. (2011). The College Payoff. Georgetown CEW. cew.georgetown.edu/collegepayoff
• Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., & Wenzinger, E. (2021). The College Payoff. Georgetown CEW. cew.georgetown.edu/collegepayoff2021

Related on EDsmart Data

Scorecard ROI methodology · Ranking colleges by ROI · Debt-to-earnings by major · Gender pay gap by education · Educational attainment by state · Tuition trends by state · STEM vs non-STEM outcomes · Education and income mobility · Average cost of a master’s degree · Texas public four-year benchmarks · Unemployment and earnings by education · Site methodology